Match Analysis

BahiavsAtlético-MG

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

39%
25%
36%
Bahia winDrawAtlético-MG win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game0.20
1.48Avg goals scored1.21
1.58Avg goals conceded1.13
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)0–1–4

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Bahia xG

Expected goals

1.4

Atlético-MG xG

59%

Both Teams to Score

55%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

2–1

9%

0–1

8%

1–0

8%

1–2

8%

0–0

6%

Home

Bahia

Bahia

LWDLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

DLLLL

PPG

0.20

Avg goals

1.2 / 1.1

Last 5

0W 1D 4L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bahia vs Atlético-MG?

Bahia is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bahia's current form?

Bahia have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 17 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bahia Win39%
Draw25%
Atlético-MG Win36%
BTTS59%
Over 2.555%