Match Analysis

ChapecoensevsFluminense

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

18%
19%
63%
Chapecoense winDrawFluminense win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.80
0.91Avg goals scored1.83
2.19Avg goals conceded1.14
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.1

Chapecoense xG

Expected goals

2.3

Fluminense xG

60%

Both Teams to Score

66%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

10%

0–2

9%

0–1

8%

1–1

8%

0–3

7%

1–3

7%

Home

Chapecoense

Chapecoense

DLWLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

0.9 / 2.2

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Fluminense

Fluminense

WWLWL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.1

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

Fluminense is favored with a 63% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Chapecoense's current form?

Chapecoense have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 16 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Chapecoense Win18%
Draw19%
Fluminense Win63%
BTTS60%
Over 2.566%