Match Analysis

GrêmiovsBahia

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

40%
24%
36%
Grêmio winDrawBahia win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game1.40
1.20Avg goals scored1.48
1.50Avg goals conceded1.58
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.6

Grêmio xG

Expected goals

1.5

Bahia xG

62%

Both Teams to Score

60%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

2–1

9%

1–2

8%

0–1

7%

1–0

7%

2–0

6%

Home

Grêmio

Grêmio

DLWWW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.2 / 1.5

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Bahia

Bahia

LWDLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Grêmio vs Bahia?

Grêmio is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Grêmio's current form?

Grêmio have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 17 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Grêmio Win40%
Draw24%
Bahia Win36%
BTTS62%
Over 2.560%