Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.5
FC Augsburg xG
Expected goals
2.2
Mainz xG
82%
Both Teams to Score
85%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–2
7%
1–2
6%
2–1
6%
3–2
6%
1–1
5%
2–3
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $60K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
FC Augsburg
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
2.0 / 2.6
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Away
Mainz
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
1.8 / 2.3
Last 5
1W 0D 4L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win FC Augsburg vs Mainz?
FC Augsburg is favored with a 46% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is FC Augsburg's current form?
FC Augsburg have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–2 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 82%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 9 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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