Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Mainz xG
Expected goals
2.2
SC Freiburg xG
73%
Both Teams to Score
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
8%
1–2
8%
2–2
7%
1–3
6%
2–1
6%
0–2
5%
Home
Mainz
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
1.8 / 2.3
Last 5
1W 0D 4L
Away
SC Freiburg
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
2.0 / 1.2
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Mainz vs SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg is favored with a 48% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Mainz's current form?
Mainz have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 9 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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