Mainz vs Sc Paderborn 07
🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.9
Mainz xG
Expected goals
1.8
SC Freiburg xG
71%
Both Teams to Score
71%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
8%
1–2
8%
2–1
8%
2–2
7%
1–0
5%
1–3
5%
Home
Mainz
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.6 / 1.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
SC Freiburg
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.7
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Mainz vs Sc Paderborn 07?
Mainz is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Mainz's current form?
Mainz have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Bundesliga