Match Analysis

MainzvsWerder Bremen

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

36%
21%
43%
Mainz winDrawWerder Bremen win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.40
1.82Avg goals scored1.80
2.34Avg goals conceded1.48
1–0–4Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.9

Mainz xG

Expected goals

2.1

Werder Bremen xG

75%

Both Teams to Score

76%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

8%

1–1

7%

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

1–3

5%

2–3

5%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

LLLLW

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.8 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Away

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen

LWLWD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.5

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs Werder Bremen?

Werder Bremen is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 9 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Mainz Win36%
Draw21%
Werder Bremen Win43%
BTTS75%
Over 2.576%