Match Analysis

RB LeipzigvsMainz

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

69%
15%
16%
RB Leipzig winDrawMainz win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game0.60
3.20Avg goals scored1.82
1.48Avg goals conceded2.34
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)1–0–4

Score Forecast

Poisson model

3.3

RB Leipzig xG

Expected goals

1.7

Mainz xG

79%

Both Teams to Score

88%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

3–1

7%

2–1

6%

3–2

6%

4–1

6%

2–2

5%

4–2

5%

Home

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

DLWWW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

3.2 / 1.5

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Mainz

Mainz

LLLLW

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.8 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win RB Leipzig vs Mainz?

RB Leipzig is favored with a 69% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is RB Leipzig's current form?

RB Leipzig have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 9 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

RB Leipzig Win69%
Draw15%
Mainz Win16%
BTTS79%
Over 2.588%