Match Analysis

ArsenalvsReal Madrid

UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

45%
20%
35%
Arsenal winDrawReal Madrid win

Key Stats

2.40Points per game3.00
2.10Avg goals scored3.38
0.90Avg goals conceded1.84
4–0–1Record (W–D–L)5–0–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.3

Arsenal xG

Expected goals

2

Real Madrid xG

78%

Both Teams to Score

80%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

1–1

6%

1–2

6%

3–1

6%

3–2

6%

Home

Arsenal

Arsenal

WWWLW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

2.1 / 0.9

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Away

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

WWWWW

PPG

3.00

Avg goals

3.4 / 1.8

Last 5

5W 0D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Real Madrid?

Arsenal is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Arsenal's current form?

Arsenal have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Arsenal Win45%
Draw20%
Real Madrid Win35%
BTTS78%
Over 2.580%