Match Analysis

Aston VillavsBorussia Dortmund

UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

48%
20%
32%
Aston Villa winDrawBorussia Dortmund win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game2.60
2.71Avg goals scored1.64
1.58Avg goals conceded1.13
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)4–1–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.2

Aston Villa xG

Expected goals

1.8

Borussia Dortmund xG

74%

Both Teams to Score

76%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

8%

1–1

7%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

6%

3–2

5%

Home

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

DLDLW

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

2.7 / 1.6

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

WWDWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.1

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund?

Aston Villa is favored with a 48% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Aston Villa's current form?

Aston Villa have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Aston Villa Win48%
Draw20%
Borussia Dortmund Win32%
BTTS74%
Over 2.576%