Match Analysis

Atlético MadridvsManchester United

UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

45%
21%
34%
Atlético Madrid winDrawManchester United win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game0.80
0.90Avg goals scored1.86
1.24Avg goals conceded2.27
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Atlético Madrid xG

Expected goals

1.8

Manchester United xG

72%

Both Teams to Score

73%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

8%

2–1

8%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

5%

3–2

5%

Home

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid

LLWWD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.9 / 1.2

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Manchester United

Manchester United

DWLLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.9 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?

Atlético Madrid is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético Madrid's current form?

Atlético Madrid have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético Madrid Win45%
Draw21%
Manchester United Win34%
BTTS72%
Over 2.573%