Match Analysis

BarcelonavsManchester City

UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

50%
18%
32%
Barcelona winDrawManchester City win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.40
3.25Avg goals scored3.16
1.47Avg goals conceded1.95
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.7

Barcelona xG

Expected goals

2.2

Manchester City xG

83%

Both Teams to Score

87%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–2

7%

2–1

6%

3–2

6%

1–2

5%

2–3

5%

3–1

5%

Home

Barcelona

Barcelona

WWWLL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

3.2 / 1.5

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Manchester City

Manchester City

DWLWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

3.2 / 2.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Manchester City?

Barcelona is favored with a 50% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Barcelona's current form?

Barcelona have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–2 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 83%. Over 2.5 goals: 87%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Barcelona Win50%
Draw18%
Manchester City Win32%
BTTS83%
Over 2.587%