Manchester Cityvs
Napoli
UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model3.1
Manchester City xG
Expected goals
1.9
Napoli xG
81%
Both Teams to Score
88%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
6%
2–2
6%
3–1
6%
3–2
6%
4–1
5%
4–2
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $57K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
3.2 / 2.0
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Napoli
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
1.7 / 3.1
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Manchester City vs Napoli?
Manchester City is favored with a 62% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Manchester City's current form?
Manchester City have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (6% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 81%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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