Match Analysis

AZ AlkmaarvsSK Sturm Graz

UEL Europa League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

54%
22%
24%
AZ Alkmaar winDrawSK Sturm Graz win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game1.20
1.90Avg goals scored0.95
1.07Avg goals conceded1.74
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.9

AZ Alkmaar xG

Expected goals

1.2

SK Sturm Graz xG

59%

Both Teams to Score

60%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

2–1

10%

1–0

9%

2–0

8%

1–2

6%

2–2

6%

Home

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar

WLLLW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.9 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Away

SK Sturm Graz

SK Sturm Graz

DLDDW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.7

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AZ Alkmaar vs SK Sturm Graz?

AZ Alkmaar is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?

AZ Alkmaar have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AZ Alkmaar Win54%
Draw22%
SK Sturm Graz Win24%
BTTS59%
Over 2.560%