Match Analysis

BenficavsAZ Alkmaar

UEL Europa League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

54%
21%
25%
Benfica winDrawAZ Alkmaar win

Key Stats

3.00Points per game1.20
3.36Avg goals scored1.90
0.85Avg goals conceded1.07
5–0–0Record (W–D–L)2–0–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.1

Benfica xG

Expected goals

1.4

AZ Alkmaar xG

66%

Both Teams to Score

68%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

9%

2–1

9%

2–0

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

7%

1–0

6%

Home

Benfica

Benfica

WWWWW

PPG

3.00

Avg goals

3.4 / 0.9

Last 5

5W 0D 0L

Away

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar

WLLLW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.9 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?

Benfica is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Benfica's current form?

Benfica have recorded 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Benfica Win54%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar Win25%
BTTS66%
Over 2.568%