Match Analysis

Atlético MadridvsBarcelona

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

32%
21%
47%
Atlético Madrid winDrawBarcelona win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.80
1.74Avg goals scored3.78
0.77Avg goals conceded1.17
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Atlético Madrid xG

Expected goals

2

Barcelona xG

71%

Both Teams to Score

71%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

8%

1–2

8%

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

1–3

6%

0–1

5%

Home

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid

LLWWD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.7 / 0.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Barcelona

Barcelona

WWWLL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

3.8 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona?

Barcelona is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Atlético Madrid's current form?

Atlético Madrid have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 12 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Atlético Madrid Win32%
Draw21%
Barcelona Win47%
BTTS71%
Over 2.571%