Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.3
Barcelona xG
Expected goals
1.4
Atlético Madrid xG
68%
Both Teams to Score
71%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
9%
1–1
8%
2–0
7%
3–1
7%
1–0
6%
1–2
6%
Home
Barcelona
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
3.8 / 1.2
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Atlético Madrid
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.7 / 0.8
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid?
Barcelona is favored with a 58% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Barcelona's current form?
Barcelona have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 12 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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