Match Analysis

MálagavsBarcelona

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

10%
12%
78%
Málaga winDrawBarcelona win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.80
0.90Avg goals scored3.78
1.99Avg goals conceded1.17
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Málaga xG

Expected goals

3.3

Barcelona xG

67%

Both Teams to Score

83%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–3

8%

0–3

7%

1–2

7%

1–4

7%

0–2

6%

0–4

5%

Home

Málaga

Málaga

LLWDL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

0.9 / 2.0

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Barcelona

Barcelona

WWWLL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

3.8 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Málaga vs Barcelona?

Barcelona is favored with a 78% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Málaga's current form?

Málaga have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–3 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 12 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Málaga Win10%
Draw12%
Barcelona Win78%
BTTS67%
Over 2.583%