Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Osasuna xG
Expected goals
1.3
Málaga xG
59%
Both Teams to Score
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
2–1
9%
1–0
8%
1–2
7%
2–0
7%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $54K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Osasuna
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.0 / 1.9
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Málaga
PPG
0.80
Avg goals
0.9 / 2.0
Last 5
1W 1D 3L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Osasuna vs Málaga?
Osasuna is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Osasuna's current form?
Osasuna have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 12 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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