Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2
Real Madrid xG
Expected goals
1
Villarreal xG
55%
Both Teams to Score
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
10%
1–1
10%
2–0
10%
2–1
10%
3–0
7%
3–1
7%
Home
Real Madrid
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
2.6 / 0.7
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Away
Villarreal
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid is favored with a 61% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have recorded 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 12 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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