Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.4
Real Sociedad xG
Expected goals
2.1
Real Madrid xG
66%
Both Teams to Score
68%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
9%
1–2
9%
0–2
7%
1–3
7%
2–2
7%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $126K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Real Sociedad
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
1.9 / 1.5
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
2.6 / 0.7
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Sociedad's current form?
Real Sociedad have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 12 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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