Match Analysis

AJ AuxerrevsMarseille

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

22%
19%
59%
AJ Auxerre winDrawMarseille win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game2.40
1.20Avg goals scored2.42
2.29Avg goals conceded1.34
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)4–0–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

AJ Auxerre xG

Expected goals

2.5

Marseille xG

71%

Both Teams to Score

76%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

9%

1–1

7%

1–3

7%

0–2

6%

2–2

6%

0–1

5%

Home

AJ Auxerre

AJ Auxerre

LLDWL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.2 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Marseille

Marseille

WWWWL

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

2.4 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AJ Auxerre vs Marseille?

Marseille is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is AJ Auxerre's current form?

AJ Auxerre have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AJ Auxerre Win22%
Draw19%
Marseille Win59%
BTTS71%
Over 2.576%