Match Analysis

LensvsMarseille

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

34%
22%
44%
Lens winDrawMarseille win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game2.40
1.54Avg goals scored2.41
1.42Avg goals conceded1.34
1–0–4Record (W–D–L)4–0–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Lens xG

Expected goals

1.9

Marseille xG

70%

Both Teams to Score

70%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

9%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

2–2

7%

0–1

5%

0–2

5%

Home

Lens

Lens

LLLWL

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Away

Marseille

Marseille

WWWWL

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

2.4 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lens vs Marseille?

Marseille is favored with a 44% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lens's current form?

Lens have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lens Win34%
Draw22%
Marseille Win44%
BTTS70%
Over 2.570%