Match Analysis

LensvsToulouse

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

40%
24%
36%
Lens winDrawToulouse win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.60
1.54Avg goals scored1.56
1.42Avg goals conceded1.25
1–0–4Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.6

Lens xG

Expected goals

1.5

Toulouse xG

62%

Both Teams to Score

60%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

2–1

9%

1–2

8%

0–1

7%

1–0

7%

2–0

6%

Home

Lens

Lens

LLLWL

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Away

Toulouse

Toulouse

WLDWD

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lens vs Toulouse?

Lens is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lens's current form?

Lens have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lens Win40%
Draw24%
Toulouse Win36%
BTTS62%
Over 2.560%