Match Analysis

MarseillevsToulouse

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

52%
21%
27%
Marseille winDrawToulouse win

Key Stats

2.40Points per game1.60
2.42Avg goals scored1.56
1.33Avg goals conceded1.25
4–0–1Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.1

Marseille xG

Expected goals

1.4

Toulouse xG

66%

Both Teams to Score

68%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

9%

2–1

9%

2–0

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

7%

1–0

6%

Home

Marseille

Marseille

WWWWL

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

2.4 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Away

Toulouse

Toulouse

WLDWD

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Marseille is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Marseille's current form?

Marseille have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Marseille Win52%
Draw21%
Toulouse Win27%
BTTS66%
Over 2.568%