Arsenalvs
Manchester City
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Arsenal xG
Expected goals
1
Manchester City xG
52%
Both Teams to Score
51%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
11%
1–1
11%
2–0
10%
2–1
10%
0–0
7%
0–1
7%
Home
Arsenal
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.4 / 0.4
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.5
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Arsenal's current form?
Arsenal have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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