Match Analysis

ArsenalvsManchester United

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

64%
21%
15%
Arsenal winDrawManchester United win

Key Stats

2.40Points per game0.80
1.39Avg goals scored1.39
0.40Avg goals conceded2.11
4–0–1Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Arsenal xG

Expected goals

0.9

Manchester United xG

51%

Both Teams to Score

55%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

11%

2–0

11%

1–1

10%

2–1

10%

3–0

7%

3–1

7%

Home

Arsenal

Arsenal

WWWLW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

1.4 / 0.4

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Away

Manchester United

Manchester United

DWLLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.4 / 2.1

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Arsenal is favored with a 64% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Arsenal's current form?

Arsenal have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Arsenal Win64%
Draw21%
Manchester United Win15%
BTTS51%
Over 2.555%