Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2
Chelsea xG
Expected goals
1.5
Aston Villa xG
67%
Both Teams to Score
68%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
9%
2–1
9%
1–2
7%
2–2
7%
1–0
6%
2–0
6%
Home
Chelsea
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.6 / 1.3
Last 5
2W 0D 3L
Away
Aston Villa
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.7
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Chelsea vs Aston Villa?
Chelsea is favored with a 48% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Chelsea's current form?
Chelsea have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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