Match Analysis

EvertonvsAston Villa

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

45%
24%
31%
Everton winDrawAston Villa win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.00
1.23Avg goals scored1.76
1.08Avg goals conceded1.74
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Everton xG

Expected goals

1.4

Aston Villa xG

62%

Both Teams to Score

60%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

2–1

9%

1–0

8%

1–2

8%

2–0

7%

0–1

6%

Home

Everton

Everton

DWWLL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.2 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

DLDLW

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.7

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Everton vs Aston Villa?

Everton is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Everton's current form?

Everton have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Everton Win45%
Draw24%
Aston Villa Win31%
BTTS62%
Over 2.560%