Manchester Cityvs
Brighton & Hove Albion
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.3
Manchester City xG
Expected goals
1.9
Brighton & Hove Albion xG
62%
Both Teams to Score
62%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
10%
1–2
10%
0–1
8%
0–2
7%
2–1
7%
1–3
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $61K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.5
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Brighton & Hove Albion
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.3 / 0.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brighton & Hove Albion is favored with a 53% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Manchester City's current form?
Manchester City have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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