Match Analysis

Manchester CityvsChelsea

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

43%
23%
34%
Manchester City winDrawChelsea win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.20
1.82Avg goals scored1.65
1.52Avg goals conceded1.30
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–0–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.8

Manchester City xG

Expected goals

1.6

Chelsea xG

67%

Both Teams to Score

66%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

2–1

9%

1–2

8%

2–2

7%

1–0

6%

0–1

5%

Home

Manchester City

Manchester City

DWLWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.5

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Chelsea

Chelsea

LWLLW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Manchester City vs Chelsea?

Manchester City is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Manchester City's current form?

Manchester City have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Manchester City Win43%
Draw23%
Chelsea Win34%
BTTS67%
Over 2.566%