Match Analysis

Newcastle UnitedvsSunderland

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

48%
26%
26%
Newcastle United winDrawSunderland win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.40
1.10Avg goals scored0.72
1.46Avg goals conceded1.59
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Newcastle United xG

Expected goals

1.1

Sunderland xG

52%

Both Teams to Score

48%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

1–0

11%

2–1

9%

0–1

8%

2–0

8%

0–0

7%

Home

Newcastle United

Newcastle United

DLLWL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.1 / 1.5

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

Sunderland

Sunderland

WLLWD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.7 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Newcastle United vs Sunderland?

Newcastle United is favored with a 48% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Newcastle United's current form?

Newcastle United have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Newcastle United Win48%
Draw26%
Sunderland Win26%
BTTS52%
Over 2.548%