Match Analysis

AC MilanvsAtalanta

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

59%
19%
22%
AC Milan winDrawAtalanta win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.20
2.16Avg goals scored1.62
1.31Avg goals conceded1.95
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.4

AC Milan xG

Expected goals

1.5

Atalanta xG

71%

Both Teams to Score

75%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

9%

1–1

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

7%

2–0

6%

1–0

5%

Home

AC Milan

AC Milan

WLWLW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.2 / 1.3

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Atalanta

Atalanta

WDLDD

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.9

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AC Milan vs Atalanta?

AC Milan is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is AC Milan's current form?

AC Milan have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 11 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AC Milan Win59%
Draw19%
Atalanta Win22%
BTTS71%
Over 2.575%