Match Analysis

AC MilanvsFiorentina

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

61%
18%
21%
AC Milan winDrawFiorentina win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.00
2.16Avg goals scored1.77
1.31Avg goals conceded2.17
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.6

AC Milan xG

Expected goals

1.5

Fiorentina xG

72%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

8%

3–1

7%

1–1

6%

2–0

6%

2–2

6%

1–2

5%

Home

AC Milan

AC Milan

WLWLW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.2 / 1.3

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

DWDLL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.8 / 2.2

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AC Milan vs Fiorentina?

AC Milan is favored with a 61% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is AC Milan's current form?

AC Milan have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.6.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 11 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AC Milan Win61%
Draw18%
Fiorentina Win21%
BTTS72%
Over 2.578%