Match Analysis

AC MilanvsInternazionale

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

39%
22%
39%
AC Milan winDrawInternazionale win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game2.40
2.16Avg goals scored2.34
1.31Avg goals conceded1.09
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)4–0–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.8

AC Milan xG

Expected goals

1.8

Internazionale xG

70%

Both Teams to Score

70%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

9%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

2–2

7%

0–1

5%

1–0

5%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $48K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
AC Milan
39%
48%
-9%
Draw
22%
—
—
Internazionale
39%
52%
-13%
Trade on Polymarket →

Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

AC Milan

AC Milan

WLWLW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.2 / 1.3

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Internazionale

Internazionale

WWLWW

PPG

2.40

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.1

Last 5

4W 0D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AC Milan vs Internazionale?

This is an evenly matched fixture. Both teams have similar win probabilities based on current form.

What is AC Milan's current form?

AC Milan have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 11 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AC Milan Win39%
Draw22%
Internazionale Win39%
BTTS70%
Over 2.570%