Match Analysis

MonzavsFiorentina

ITA Serie A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

41%
20%
39%
Monza winDrawFiorentina win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game1.00
1.46Avg goals scored1.77
2.17Avg goals conceded2.17
1–0–4Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.1

Monza xG

Expected goals

2

Fiorentina xG

76%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

7%

1–2

7%

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

1–3

5%

2–3

5%

Home

Monza

Monza

LLLLW

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.5 / 2.2

Last 5

1W 0D 4L

Away

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

DWDLL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.8 / 2.2

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Monza vs Fiorentina?

Monza is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Monza's current form?

Monza have recorded 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 11 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Monza Win41%
Draw20%
Fiorentina Win39%
BTTS76%
Over 2.578%