Match Analysis

ItalyvsFrance

UNL UEFA Nations League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

52%
22%
26%
Italy winDrawFrance win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game2.00
2.36Avg goals scored1.54
1.15Avg goals conceded1.36
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.9

Italy xG

Expected goals

1.3

France xG

62%

Both Teams to Score

62%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

2–1

10%

1–0

8%

1–2

7%

2–0

7%

2–2

6%

Home

Italy

Italy

WWDWL

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

2.4 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

France

France

LWDWW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.4

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Italy vs France?

Italy is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Italy's current form?

Italy have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 5 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Italy Win52%
Draw22%
France Win26%
BTTS62%
Over 2.562%